Photovoltaic Energy Production Modeling Using Linear Regression Models in MS Excel

Photovoltaic Energy Production is a basic element of current energy systems. The transition to decentralized energy production which characterizes fast dynamics in the change of electricity consumption and production leads to new developments in control systems for grid management and its maintenance. On the other hand, the energy system is closely related to the energy market and the trading rules. This raises additional constraints for utilizing production and consumption capacities related to existing business models. Therefore, it is necessary to develop analytical models and software tools for modeling the behavior of renewable energy sources, electricity consumption, and storage. This knowledge is a milestone for successful participation in the electricity market, demand response, and smart energy management. The current research represents a software tool based on MS Excel for photovoltaic energy production modeling and forecasting. Linear regression models with different numbers of variables and their applications are used in the research process including cases of gaps in the raw data.