A Multicriteria Decision Analysis to Selection of Low-carbon Emitting Technologies under Joint Crediting Mechanism for Thailand's Carbon Neutrality 2050

To strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, Parties to the Paris Agreement agree to keep a global temperature rise well below 2-degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels within this century and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5-degrees Celsius. Thailand ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016 and pledged its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Subsequently, Thailand's updated NDC 2022 intends to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30 percent from the projected business-as-usual (BAU) level by 2030. The level of contribution could increase up to 40 percent, subject to adequate and enhanced access to technology development and transfer, financial resources, and capacity building support of 40% emissions reduction in 2030 compared to its BAU. Presently, Thailand increases its ability to deal with the impacts of climate change and makes the updated NDC consistent with a low GHG emissions and climate-resilient pathways of the Paris Agreement. To reach the ambitious goals, appropriate mobilization and provision of financial resources need to be put in place. The Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) is an important initiative that facilitates collaboration between Japan and partner countries including Thailand to address GHG emissions reduction thru low-emission technologies. The JCM serves as a bridge for global climate action, promoting sustainable development while addressing climate challenges. The bilateral co-operation of JCM between Thailand and Japan was effective since October 13, 2015, and will be ended by December 2030. The JCM credits used to achieved Japan's NDC are based on the proportion of shared investments in the JCM projects. Japan may share the JCM investment as high as 50 percent. This paper proposes a multicriteria decision analysis (MCA) to selection of low-carbon emitting technologies under Thailand-Japan JCM for achievement of Thailand's carbon neutrality 2050. Results indicates five promising categories of JCM projects in Thailand: (i) energy efficiency improvement, (ii) renewable energy and biofuels, (iii) advanced electric devices, (iv) advanced thermal devices, and (v) advanced technologies including hydrogen and carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS). In terms of technological readiness and economics, both energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy measures are found cost effective and suitable for domestic actions while advanced electric devices and advanced thermal devices need JCM framework. The advanced technologies including hydrogen CCS, CCUS and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) need in-dept assessment for JCM. Thus, the JCM facilitates diffusion of leading decarbonizing technologies and infrastructure as well as implementation of mitigation actions and contributes to sustainable development of Thailand.