Global Warming and Landscape Fragmentation Drive the Adaptive Distribution of Phyllostachys edulis in China

Global warming and landscape fragmentation significantly affect the spatial distribution pattern of bamboo forests. This study used high-resolution data and an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the distribution of Phyllostachys edulis in China under current and future climatic conditions in three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585), and analyzed its land use landscape fragmentation using landscape indices. The results indicate that Phyllostachys edulis currently has potentially suitable habitats majorly distributed in East China, Southwest China, and Central South China. The precipitation of the driest month (BIO14) and the precipitation seasonality (BIO15) are the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of Phyllostachys edulis. In the next three scenarios, the adaptive distribution area of Phyllostachys edulis is generally expanding. With an increase in CO2 concentration, the adaptive distribution of Phyllostachys edulis in the 2050s migrates towards the southeast direction, and in the 2070s, the suitable habitat of Phyllostachys edulis migrates northward. In the suitable habitat area of Phyllostachys edulis, cropland and forests are the main land use types. With the passage of time, the proportion of forest area in the landscape pattern of the high-suitability area for Phyllostachys edulis continues to increase. Under SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, the cropland in the Phyllostachys edulis high-suitability area gradually becomes fragmented, leading to a decrease in the distribution of cropland. In addition, it is expected that the landscape of high-suitability areas will become more fragmented and the quality of the landscape will decline in the future. This research provides a scientific basis for understanding the response of Phyllostachys edulis to climate change, and also provides theoretical guidance and data support for the management and planning of bamboo forest ecosystems, which will help in managing bamboo forest resources rationally and balancing carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation.