Towards resilience in the value chain of coal mining upstream: an agent-based modeling and simulation to improve coal discrepancy

Coal discrepancy refers to the variance between actual coal-mined production and planned. This study aims to explore the contributing factors to the coal discrepancy phenomenon and its magnitude of impact, especially in the upstream area of the coal mining value chain. The author carried out a focus group discussion (FGD) involving experts at one of the largest coal mining companies in Indonesia. The result will then be verified by empirical data related to discrepancies that was collected from January to December 2023. The output variables then become the input of the simulation using Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation (ABMS) to explore the emergent properties. The study discovered that the top three significant contributing factors to this phenomenon are the change in mining sequence (47.1%), the accuracy of the geological model (36.5%), and operational loss (5.5%). The simulation result shows that coordination among the pit technical or planner, geologist, and operation crew is crucial for fostering value co-creation within the company, which in turn optimises this phenomenon. The statistical analysis reveals that the collaboration has a significant correlation of − 0.844 to coal achievement time and 0.912 to coal mined achievement per unit of time, with a significance level value of 0.000 (< 0.01).