The geopolitical implications of the German hydrogen sector development and its imports strategy

Germany has a long history of making bold choices in its foreign policy, and the Hydrogen Strategy (NHS), along with the Import Strategy for Hydrogen and Hydrogen Derivatives (ISHHD), is another instance of its strategic gambling.In the past years, Germany's federal government has proven its ambitious approach to energy transformation by systematically expanding its focus on renewable energy via the Energiewende strategy.Today, low-carbon hydrogen, identified by the German government and the European Union as a key element of the future net zero economy, plays a central role in Germany's energy transformation.The scale of these ambitions is immense: the strategy projects that by 2030, Germany will need 95-130 TWh of hydrogen, and by 2045, this demand could rise to as much as 500 TWh.Under every plausible scenario, the vast majority of this demand would need to be covered with imports.The materialization of such imports is therefore the "but for" condition for the success of the German hydrogen strategy.Accordingly, the ISHHD includes extensive investment plans and envisages to the creation of new economic and political structures.Germany views hydrogen as a pathway to reducing its reliance on traditional fossil fuels and decarbonising its economy, while simultaneously taking on risks associated with new uncertainties of technological and market developments.The implementation of the ISHHD, if successful, will entail structure-altering changes to the international energy landscape.This article examines the geopolitical implications that such successful implementation would likely entail for Germany and beyond.It begins with an overview of the policy and market developments, followed by a geopolitical analysis of Germany's strategy and its implementation measures.