Long-term variations in peak electron density and temperature of mesopause region: Dependence on solar, geomagnetic, and atmospheric activities, long-term trends

The paper overviews the main results of the study of long-term variations in characteristics of the upper neutral atmosphere and ionosphere, obtained during the implementation of Russian Science Foundation Project No. 22-17-00146 “Experimental and theoretical study of the coupling neutral and ionized components of Earth’s atmosphere”. We study and compare long-term variations in the peak electron density and temperature of the mesopause region. Their dependences on solar, geomagnetic, and atmospheric activity, as well as long-term trends, are analyzed. The analysis is based on data from long-term measurements with the ISTP SB RAS complex of instruments. The peak electron density (NmF2) data was acquired with the Irkutsk analog automatic ionospheric station for 1955–1996 and the Irkutsk digital ionosonde DPS-4 for 2003–2021. The atmospheric temperatures at mesopause altitudes (Tm) were obtained from spectrometric observations of the hydroxyl molecule emission (OH (6-2) band, 834.0 nm, emission maximum height ~87 km) for 2008–2020. The analysis uses solar (F10.7) and geomagnetic (Ap) activity indices, as well as data on variations in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The study employs simple and multiple linear regression methods. Annual average NmF2 values are found to be predominantly controlled by changes in solar flux. Analysis of regression residuals shows that the largest deviations from regression (for both simple and multiple regression) are observed in years near the maxima of solar cycles 19 (1956–1959) and 22 (1989–1991). Annual average temperature variability in the mesopause region correlates with changes in the SOI index: day-to-day variability exhibits a positive correlation with SOI; and intra-diurnal variability, a negative correlation with SOI. No significant relationship was found between year-to-year variations in the NmF2 and Tm variability.