The pandemic is over but riders still fear infection − An extended behavioural model explaining post-pandemic transit avoidance related to perceived infection fear

In 2023, transit ridership in most global cities is still below pre-COVID levels. While transit avoidance due to perceived infection fear is a key issue affecting patronage recovery, behavioural models to explain post-pandemic transit use and perceived infection fear are very limited and have not been widely adopted in research. This paper develops an extended theoretical model of transit avoidance from perceived infection fear that integrates Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) with normative influences; namely personal norm and social norm, as well as a measure of infection anxiety. This extended model is measured with a structural equation model (SEM) using data collected from a large online survey in Melbourne, Australia. Additionally, the mediating effects of personal norm, social influence and infection anxiety on transit avoidance is explored and the impact of home relocation is analysed. Results show that higher protection motivation is strongly related to post-COVID transit avoidance. Moreover, personal norm is a stronger predictor of protection motivation compared to threat appraisal and coping appraisal. Infection anxiety also has a significant positive relationship with protection motivation, suggesting that perceived infection fear is still affecting transit avoidance. Comparing the model results, it is evident that while the conventional PMT is effective in predicting long-term transit avoidance, the extended PMT model shows a better goodness-of-fit and explanatory power. Therefore, the extended PMT model developed for this study provides a deeper understanding of the relationships between protection motivation and post-COVID transit avoidance. Several implications for research and practice are suggested. 246 words.