A Spatial Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (SMCDA) to map the risk of avian influenza in Lazio and Toscana (central Italy).

Avian influenza (AI) is a global concern, affecting wild and domestic bird populations worldwide. Environmental conditions facilitating the presence of wild birds and a consistent domestic bird population contribute to the introduction and spread of AI within a territory. This study focuses on the identification of major risk areas for AI in the Lazio and Toscana Regions of central Italy using Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (SMCDA). Through the integration of eleven risk factors regarding domestic bird farms and facilities, wild birds density, water bodies, and roads network, a suitability map for AI introduction and spread was generated. The findings reveal that approximately 30% of Lazio and 20% of Toscana are at high risk for AI introduction and spread. Notably, the implementation of rigorous biosecurity measures in intensive poultry industries has significantly prevented the occurrence of AI outbreaks, even in areas considered at risk. The study emphasizes the importance of informed decision-making in AI risk management, highlighting the potential applications of the SMCDA in prioritizing surveillance efforts and planning control programs. Furthermore, it underscores the need for continuous data updating and comprehensive preventive strategies to address the complex dynamics of AI transmission and safeguard both poultry and human health.