Public opinion in Ukraine and Russia: consequences of the all-out war, explanatory factors and its impact on political decisions

The paper compares the impact of public opinion about the war on political decisions in Ukraine and Russia. The research question is relevant in two senses. First, Ukraine defends itself against Russia’s unprovoked aggression. Second, Ukraine’s President Zelensky was elected in 2019 on the promise to develop direct democracy and various mechanisms of public participation in the political process, and that actualizes research of public opinion. The author used the data of the results of mass surveys conducted in the two belligerent countries in 2023 and 2024 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology and the Levada Center. Answers to an open-ended question and two closed-ended questions were analyzed using content analysis and regression analysis. It is demonstrated that public opinion in Ukraine had its own dynamics and changed independently of the official position of the authorities. Changes in the public opinion in 2024 were particularly noticeable, and the perception of potential territorial concessions illustrates this tendency. Advantages and disadvantages of the independence of public opinion at wartime are considered. It is proposed to consider more active counterpropaganda efforts targeting Russia’s population, where the minor changes in public opinion and the authorities’ position were in the same direction; and rallying around the flag effect continued during the analyzed period.