Assessing the Environmental Kuznets Curve in Agricultural Transport: The Case of Brazilian Soy

Abstract This research investigates the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis within Brazil’s soy transportation sector. It aims to determine if CO 2 emissions from soy transport show an “Inverted-U” or “N” shaped relationship with income from 2002 to 2017. Using a mathematical optimization model and System GMM for analysis, the study finds an “N” shaped EKC, indicating emissions initially increase, decrease, and then rise again with income. This suggests long-term environmental damage from sector growth, highlighting the need for targeted measures to mitigate emissions and enhance operational productivity, such as investments in intermodal transport and road efficiency improvements.