The Democrat Disaster: Hurricane Exposure, Risk Aversion, and Insurance Demand

How does exposure to natural disasters influence voter decision-making? While extreme weather events are exogenous shocks, observed effects often rely on compound treatment effects of exposure not only to threat but also to direct losses. To circumvent this, I use difference-in-differences estimates of hurricane nearly hit areas in the United States to study the effect of proximity to hazard on vote choice. I find that Democrats’ vote share decreases following a near-miss in both House and Senate races between 2002 and 2014. Conventional explanations related to religiosity, authority, or competence fail to explain this effect. Instead, I propose Republican gains are driven by voters’ spending on private insurance and increased willingness to take risks when spared from disaster. I therefore advance an alternative explanation for voting in response to natural disasters by relying on novel data on hurricane trajectories, precinct electoral returns, risk-aversion, and private insurance inquiries.