A challenging future for Carnaby’s Cockatoo (Zanda latirostris) under a changing climate

Context With climate change causing unprecedented and rapid changes, conservation agencies need to establish the impacts on vulnerable and threatened species to prioritise actions to minimise threats associated with those impacts. Aims Carnaby’s Cockatoo (Zanda latirostris) is endemic to south-western Australia and this paper provides data to underpin future conservation management actions. Methods We used data on the commencement of egg laying, breeding success, nestling condition, fledgling survival over their first year, and annual survival from the first year to construct a life table to examine the impacts of decreasing annual rainfall and increasing temperature in south-western Australia on the future viability of Carnaby’s Cockatoos. Key results Long-term survival of Carnaby’s Cockatoos will be impacted by changes in rainfall, projected to be 16% drier in winter and up to 20% drier in spring, and by an increase in the number of days with maxima ≥35°C, conditions when the birds are unable to forage. Conclusions This drying and warming is likely to lead to a further contraction in the range of Carnaby’s Cockatoo. Implications Conservation management needs to address revegetation of foraging and breeding areas, repairs to derelict natural hollows and their maintenance, and provision of artificial hollows. Management should concentrate on areas with the best prospects for species survival and recovery including in the areas identified in this paper based on life table analysis and mapped across regions.