Managing the recovering saltwater crocodile population in a marine protected area with human-wildlife conflict: A population viability analysis approach

• Crocodylus porosus sensitive to K , juvenile mortality and supplementation duration. • Crocodile population drops without supplementation or with longer supplement gaps. • Growth models yielded a K value of 1813 and a density K of 13.26 individuals/km. • Important to preserve and expand saltwater crocodile supporting habitats. • Conservation, conflict mitigation, and supplementation vital for crocodiles. Prioritizing species recovery and conservation, as well as effective management of human-wildlife conflicts is essential for reducing biodiversity threats. The saltwater crocodile (SWC) is recovering from the brink of extinction in Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary (BWLS), India and simultaneously human-crocodile conflict is on the rise. Appropriate management measures are needed for the SWC population’s long-term sustainability and to alleviate the conflict. We investigated how the SWC population in the sanctuary: behaves in the presence/absence of an ongoing species recovery strategy; and responds to changes in specific demographic and environmental parameters using population viability analysis (PVA). Population growth for the next 100 years (up to the year 2121) under various scenarios was determined and plotted. The PVA simulations on the baseline condition revealed that the SWC population is growing, with no risk of extinction in the next 100 years. The current growth rate was calculated to be 9.37 % ( r = 0.0937) in the absence of stochastic events and 9.93 % ( r = 0.0993) when considering stochastic processes. Even though there is no chance of extinction in the absence of supplementation, the population size may fall below current levels in the next 100 years, underscoring the importance of a long-term supplementing strategy. The habitat’s projected carrying capacity ( K ) may support 1813 SWC (marginally higher than the current population size in 2021 i.e., 1768 SWC) with an intrinsic growth rate of 0.1756, ensuring conflict levels remain at their current levels. This K value in BWLS may be attributed to the limited availability of potential habitats. The conservation and expansion of SWC-friendly habitats, along with conflict mitigation strategies and ongoing reintroduction programs, appear promising for preserving and maintaining SWC population in the sanctuary.