The matching relationship and driving mechanism of elderly medical care resources and elderly population in China: A study based on provincial perspective

With the exacerbation of population aging in China, policies have been formulated to provide elderly medical care resources. However, research on the matching situation of these resources with the elderly population (EP) is relatively scarce. This study collected data on elderly medical care resources and the EP from various provinces in mainland China from 2011 to 2017. Using Spearman analysis, the correlation between elderly medical care resources and the EP was explored. Based on geographical concentration, the resource and population matching conditions of each province were calculated and categorized, while the deviation across the nation was measured. Finally, panel regression was used to identify driving factors affecting provincial matching degrees. From 2011 to 2017, the EP aged 60 or above in China grew from 173 million to 235 million, an increase of 35.84%. In contrast, the number of elderly medical care beds grew from 118,000 in 2011 to 135,000 in 2017, an increase of only 14.41%. Although a positive correlation has emerged between China's elderly medical care resources and the EP in recent years, the deviation between the two has been expanding annually. Among all provinces, more than one-third still lag behind in terms of elderly medical care resources. Moreover, the matching degree is closely related to economic levels, with significant differences observed between the eastern and western regions-the developed eastern regions have higher matching rates, while the less developed regions experience lower rates. The driving factors influencing provincial matching degrees have been identified as per capita GDP (β = 0.67, P = .010) and fiscal health expenditure (β = 0.22, P < .001). The matching degree between elderly medical care resources and the EP in China urgently needs to be improved. Economic conditions have a significant impact on the matching degree. To better serve the EP, it is needed to increase investments in elderly medical care resources in the western and northeastern regions, and promote an increase in the matching degree by enhancing per capita gross domestic product and fiscal health expenditure.