Analysis of the Trends of Change in Temperature and Precipitation and their Impact on Water in Anbar Governorate (1980-2023)

Objectives: The research aims to study the changes in temperature and rainfall from 1980 to 2023 using the Mann-Kendall test model to analyze trends in temperature and rainfall changes in Al-Anbar Governorate. This model helps to detect and assess the presence of statistically significant trends in time series data by comparing the relative rankings of values over time. Method: The study relied on both an inductive-analytical approach and a deductive approach based on scientific methods to select information and data, ensuring a comprehensive examination by combining climatic elements and hydrological characteristics. Quantitative and statistical methods were applied to achieve the research objectives. Results: The study found that average temperatures in Al-Anbar have significantly increased. Al-Qaim station recorded the lowest change at 0.924°C for all study years and 0.21°C per decade, while Rutba station recorded the highest at 1.848°C and 0.42°C per decade. For rainfall, Haditha station saw the lowest decrease at -47.828 mm, while Al-Qaim station experienced the largest reduction at -58.036 mm. This shift has led to a 40% decline in rainfall and a growing water deficit in the Euphrates River, projected to reach 2403.8 million cubic meters by 2040. Conclusion: The research concluded that it is essential to intensify local and international efforts to mitigate the risks of global warming and its severe consequences, which manifest in reduced rainfall and increased drought waves.