Universal simulation model of the flow of ships to the sea cargo front of the port

The article describes the results of completed research aimed at clarifying the primary base of methods for technological design of ports and terminals. Along with the main parameter expected annual cargo traffic, the key for all such calculations is the structure of the ship traffic that implements this cargo flow, or the flow of the fleet of ships that sell cargo traffic. Each type of vessel is characterized by its own parameters, which determine the duration of service in the port and, ultimately, the occupancy of berths. Traditional analytical methods, without disputing the randomness of the nature of all initial and intermediate values, prescribe the use of average values for the assessment of final technological resources, correcting the results obtained by coefficients of engineering ignorance. This assumption, which makes it possible to use simple algebraic methods for working with deterministic quantities, excludes the emergence of any means of estimating the possible dispersion of values around the obtained average values. In the practice of investmentintensive facilities, such as seaports, the degree of dispersion of parameters characterizes the probability of errors of the first and second types: the creation of insufficient capacity, leading to losses from waiting in the queue for service, and the creation of excess capacity associated with the loss of excess capitalization. There is no objective measure that determines the balance between these losses, since the decision is purely entrepreneurial, based on the risk of losses and possible gains. This study describes a tool that allows you to make appropriate entrepreneurial decisions fairly objectively.