Critical Fluctuations as an Early Warning Signal of Sports Injuries? A Proof of Concept Using Football Monitoring Data

Complex Systems Theory suggests that sports injuries may be preceded by a warning signal characterized by a short window of increased critical fluctuations. Results of the current study showed such increased critical fluctuations before 30% of the injuries. Across the entire data set, we also found a considerable number of critical fluctuations that were not followed by an injury, suggesting that the warning signal may also precede transitions to other (e.g., healthier) states. Increased critical fluctuations may be interpreted as a window of opportunity for the practitioner to launch timely and targeted interventions, and researchers should dig deeper into the meaning of such fluctuations.