A new approach for evaluating regional permafrost changes: A case study in the Hoh Xil on the interior Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau

The current spatial atmospheric forcing data cannot accurately depict the actual conditions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), where monitoring stations are scarce and unevenly distributed. This deficiency in atmospheric data hinders accurate simulation of plateau permafrost changes on the plateau. In this study, we develop a new approach to evaluate regional permafrost changes, which does not rely on spatially distributed meteorological data but instead uses the regional climate change processes or temperature change rates. Centred on a transient heat conduction permafrost model, this approach was applied to the Qinghai Hoh Xil National Nature Reserve (referred to as Hoh Xil) within the QTP from 1960 to 2015, using the rate of air temperature change provided by the Wudaoliang Meteorological Station, the only national station in Hoh Xil. Simulation results showed that the difference between the simulated and observed change rates of mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) was less than 0.04 °C per decade from 2001 to 2015 at five long-term monitoring sites. The simulated ground temperature profiles in four boreholes from various permafrost zones revealed an error of less than 0.7 °C below 5 m in depth. Model validation demonstrates the reliability of this approach for predicting long-term permafrost changes. Future regional permafrost changes were further simulated based on the latest warming scenarios (BCC-CSM2-MR) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Predictions revealed significant differences in the regional permafrost degradation rate under different climate warming scenarios. Under the most severe warming scenario (SSP5-8.5), permafrost in the study area is projected to still cover 72.2% of the total area by 2100, with most of the Hoh Xil's permafrost becoming warm (MAGT > −1 °C) permafrost. This approach not only facilitates the simulation of frozen ground changes in areas with few meteorological monitoring stations but also provides a new perspective for using coarse-resolution palaeoclimate data to investigate permafrost formation and evolution over long time scales.