Effects of the Intensity and Duration of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies on the Use of Coping Strategies: Evidence from Four African Countries

Abstract Governments worldwide responded to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic with various lockdown measures. Restrictions curb the spread of a virus but also cause serious economic challenges. Evidence on how the severity of lockdown policies impacts the economic behaviour of households in low- and middle-income countries over time remains absent. To close this knowledge gap, we study the immediate and protracted effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on households' economic coping strategies. Specifically, we examine how variations in intensity and duration of lockdown policies affect the use of savings, selling assets and reducing essential non-food expenditure in four African countries: Mozambique, Sierra Leone, Tanzania and Uganda. Using ‘Life with Corona Africa’, a large-scale dataset collected through continuous phone interviews over a full year in 2021, we apply a linear probability model with country and month fixed effects to test the combined effect of the duration and intensity of lockdown policies. We find that, immediately after the introduction of (stricter) lockdown policies, the share of households who spend savings or sell assets declines. Instead, households reduce expenditure on non-food essential items, such as education and clothing. Under longer lockdowns, however, households change their response and spend their savings and sell their assets. The effects are particularly pronounced for the two poorest quintiles of households. Taken together, our findings underscore the importance of providing adequate social safety nets for poor households to deal with income shocks under protracted lockdowns since households can only cope with short lockdowns without employing harmful adaptation mechanisms.