How the magnitude and precision of pain predictions shape pain experiences

Our work supports, challenges, and extends the application of Bayesian and predictive processing frameworks to the influence of pain predictions on pain. Under- and overpredictions of pain yielded assimilation of pain experiences, but assimilation was not systematically stronger with larger prediction errors or greater precision. Moreover, under- and overpredictions resulted in disappointment and relief, respectively. This research signifies the importance of establishing accurate predictions of pain in clinical practice.