Jubaland debacle could offer Somalia a reset option

Significance The next day, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud withdrew his troops after hundreds of SNA and Turkish-trained ‘Gorgor’ special forces either surrendered or fled across the border to Kenya in a stinging defeat. Separately, the president signed a crucial deal with Ethiopia -- which he had accused of supporting Jubaland -- agreeing to de-escalate tensions. Impacts The defeat will reduce Hassan Sheikh’s leverage to bring Jubaland President Ahmed ‘Madobe’ back to the negotiating table over elections. The federal government will face greater pressure to recognise Madobe’s victory in the just-concluded regional election. Kenya will try to play a genuinely neutral role and mediate the conflict where it can, fearing an influx of refugees if tensions persist.