Syria's economic outlook faces various challenges

Significance The provisional administration has to oversee the resumption of regular economic activity. Increased remittances from Syria’s large diaspora and aid from Qatar will provide initial support. However, the government will have to overcome the halt of Iranian oil supplies, the impact of Turkey’s anti-Kurd campaign on oil flows from north-eastern Syria and the disruption of activity in Latakia and Tartous ports. Impacts The swift collapse of the Assad regime has left the basic machinery of government intact, albeit with limited resources. Distribution of goods between north and south will be easier, with the removal of army and militia checkpoints. Commercial links to the coastal region and the north-east will face disruption. Lifting US and EU sanctions and removing the terrorist designation for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) will be important for economic recovery. Economic recovery could be derailed by continuing insecurity as Turkey acts against Kurdish groups and any Islamic State (IS) insurgency.