Novel Ex-PRO score for predicting arterial events in patients with extrasystoles

Aim. To create a score for predicting arterial events (myocardial infarctions, strokes, ischemic events in other arterial systems) in patients with extrasystole. Material and methods. The study included 740 patients (634 — the main group, 106 — control). The main group had 700 or more premature beats per day, and the control group had <700 premature beats. The main group was divided into two subgroups depending on the phase of the biomechanical cardiac cycle in which the ventricular systole of the extrasystolic contraction occurred — before (I — n=192) or after (II — n=442) the peak E on echocardiography. Standard laboratory (including blood lipid profile, coagulation test) and clinical investigations were performed. The prospective study was conducted for 1 year from the first visit moment. There were following endpoints: arterial events (myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic events in other arterial systems). Results. At the first visit, the groups of patients were equivalent in comorbidities, prior events, data from additional research methods. However, a significantly higher prevalence of ischemic events within 1 year was revealed in subgroup II. The creation of an original Ex- PRO score for predicting long-term complications with premature beats ≥700 or more per day made it possible to predict ischemic events in this category of patients (prediction accuracy 87,1%). Conclusion. Extrasystole is an additional factor in the development of arterial events in various arterial systems. Ex- PRO includes the following parameters: type IIIB plaque according to extracranial Doppler ultrasound, extrasystole up to the peak transmitral flow ≥700 per day, hemodynamically insignificant carotid bifurcation stenosis according to extracranial Doppler ultrasound, female sex, impaired left ventricular local contractility, hemodynamically insignificant lower limb artery stenosis.