Assessment and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in the Gonghe Basin

Land use pattern is a dominant factor causing carbon storage changes in terrestrial ecosystems and is crucial for maintaining the stability of carbon storage. Understanding the impact of land use on carbon storage variations in drylands is of great significance for local ecological protection and the sustainable management of land resources. Based on the land use data of the Gonghe Basin from 1990 to 2020, the InVEST model was applied to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage, and the PLUS model was used to predict the changes in carbon storage under three different development scenarios in 2030. The results are as follows: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the main land use types in the Gonghe Basin were grassland and unused land, with an overall increase in grassland and a marked decrease in unused land. (2) The spatial distribution of carbon storage was generally characterized by being low in the center and high at the edge, and grassland was the most important land use type with the highest carbon storage. Over the past 30 years, it has shown an increase followed by a decline, with an overall increase of 1.84%. (3) The carbon storage under the natural trend, urban development, and ecological protection scenarios will be 158.80 × 106 Mg, 158.66 × 106 Mg, and 159.83 × 106 Mg in 2030, respectively. The grassland and cropland areas were larger under the ecological protection scenario, which was more conducive to improving the carbon storage in this region. This study provides an effective reference for optimizing land use and achieving carbon neutrality (“dual carbon” goals) in drylands.