Numerical Methods to Reduce Measurement Uncertainty and Lower CPM Leak Thresholds

Abstract Within a pipeline system (gas or liquid), the measurement of inbound and outbound flow/energy should balance. In an ideal system, free of measurement or estimation error, a balance showing more product entering the system than exiting the system would indicate loss of product (potential leak or theft). Achieving an exact balance is, in practice, unachievable due to measurement uncertainty and accounting errors. This paper describes novel and technically advanced analytic methods used to identify meter(s) that are the most probable contributors of a discrepancy as well as sub-sections of the system where unmeasured and inaccurately measured quantities are likely to exist. This allows the operator to initiate measures to reduce measurement uncertainty (thereby lowering the threshold of detection for measurement leaks) or identify subsections of the system where physical surveillance should be performed. The methods presented here estimate the relative order of magnitude of measurement error/leak and have been validated on double blind simulated data.