Quantitative Assessment of Incorrect Operations Threat

Abstract Incorrect operations have risen to the second highest cause of incidents based on the Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) data from 2008 to September 2023 for incidents reported under the Onshore Pipeline Regulations and the Processing Plant Regulations. Despite its considerable impact on the performance of pipeline systems, a comprehensive understanding of what constitutes incorrect operations and the development of a robust risk assessment methodology for this specific threat remains limited. Incorrect operation is identified as a threat in the American Society of Mechanical Engineering standard, ASME B31.8S Managing System Integrity of Gas Pipelines, Appendix A-8, which defines it as a time-independent issue involving deviations from proper operating procedures or a failure to adhere to established protocols. The crux of this paper lies in the introduction of an innovative and comprehensive method tailored explicitly to evaluate the diverse failure modes associated with incorrect operations. The methodology advocates a systems-based approach by establishing correlations between failure incidents and an array of contributing factors, spanning system intricacies, job-specific attributes, and individual behavioral facets. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) database was leveraged to establish baseline failure frequencies specific to this threat. Additionally, incorporating data provided by a pipeline operator, the assessment of the incorrect operations threat was modified by considering factors such as construction year, temperature, state/province, high-consequence areas (HCA), maintenance, and asset type. The paper details the methodology employed in creating the model, and a preliminary evaluation of the model results is presented. Furthermore, the paper explores opportunities for further refinement of the model, discussing the “ideal” model and the data required for the ideal model to be realized. In doing so, the research aims to enhance our comprehension of incorrect operations within the complex context of pipelines, fostering advancements in risk assessment methodologies for improved pipeline safety and reliability.