Projected changes of the emission and transport of organic pollutants and metals from shipping in European seas 2018–2050

The ChemicalDrift model is applied to predict concentrations of metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons emitted from shipping in European seas in 2050, compared to 2018. Sources include antifouling paints (AFPs), discharge water from scrubbers and atmospheric deposition. The fate of pollutants in the marine environment is presented, highlighting the effect of degradation and volatilization, with seasonal and regional differences. A simplified impact assessment is outlined, where predicted environmental concentrations of individual chemicals and whole effluent concentrations of scrubber discharge water are compared to predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) or lowest observed effect concentration (LOEC). The 2018 assessment shows scrubber effluent concentrations exceeding LOEC in Baltic and North Sea coastal regions. By 2050, assuming high use of scrubbers, elevated concentrations may extend to all European seas. For AFPs, assuming continued use of primarily copper-based paints, the highest copper concentrations are projected in 2050 for North Sea ports and coasts, potentially exceeding PNECs.