Market mechanisms and their role in sustainable food security: Adapting to climate change in arid regions

Climate change is likely to worsen Iran's food security system if no domestic adaptation or mitigation options are implemented. The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of market mechanisms on food security in Iran under climate change. To achieve this, we develop an integrated approach using Statistical Down-Scaling Model (SDSM), Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), and spatial equilibrium multi-regional model (SEM). This approach is applied to the agro-ecological zones of Iran for the year 2030. The results indicate that climate change will threaten food availability in arid regions. However, the implementation of market mechanisms can help mitigate these effects, leading to an increase in social welfare by $580.94 and $578.00 million under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Therefore, policies that support market mechanisms and promote regional and international trade are recommended to ensure food security.