It’s Time to Exit? Determinants of New Firms Survival in Russian Manufacturing Industry

The current situation in the Russian economy actualizes the problem of the successful survival of young companies. The article analyzes the impact of the initial regional and sectoral conditions on the prospects for the survival of companies in the Russian manufacturing industry. Against the background of the trend of reducing the number of liquidated companies per 1,000 operating companies since 2019, in the observed six-year period 2017-2022, high variability between groups of manufacturing industries in absolute values and dynamics of liquidations was revealed. For a formed sample of more than 27 thousand. companies registered in 2017 in various manufacturing sectors calculated nonparametric Kaplan-Mayer risk functions for a six-year period, reflecting the impact of the time factor on the prospects of survival. A pattern has been revealed: sectors with a lower proportion of surviving companies are characterized by both a shift in liquidation peaks to earlier periods and higher risk values. Estimates in the Cox regression showed a multidirectional and significant impact on the survival of institutional, competitive, financial and consumer factors, but did not confirm the influence of the parameters of regional labor markets. The conclusion is formulated that, despite the implemented measures of state policy, the current uncertainty in the field of lending, high consumer inflation, unsolved problems of import substitution in practical terms, can increase the risks to the survival of new companies.