Study on the Evolution and Prediction of Land Use and Landscape Patterns in the Jianmen Shu Road Heritage Area

Land utilization—a crucial resource for human survival and development—reflects the outcomes of intricate interactions between human communities and their respective environments. The Jianmen Shu Road Heritage Area presents both opportunities and challenges in terms of protection and development. Any alterations in its land use and landscape patterns directly impact the sustainable development of the regional environment and heritage sites. In this study, we considered three cities along the Jianmen Shu Road, analyzed the evolution characteristics of land use and landscape patterns from 2012 to 2022, and used the multi-criteria evaluation–cellular automata-Markov (MCE-CA-Markov) model to predict the land use and landscape patterns in 2027. The results show the following: (1) From 2012 to 2022, forest land was at its greatest extent, the growth rate of forest land increased, the loss rate of cropland increased, and impervious land continued to expand. (2) From 2012 to 2022, the degrees of fragmentation in cropland, impervious land, and grassland increased; water area had the highest connectivity; forest land had the lowest connectivity; and barren land had the highest degree of separation. The degree of fragmentation and connectivity of the landscape patterns decreased, the degree of complexity increased, and landscape diversity increased and gradually stabilized. (3) Predictions for 2022–2027 indicate that forest land, impervious land, grassland, and barren land will increase, whereas cropland and the water area will decrease. The growth rate of grassland will increase, the loss rates of cropland and water area will decrease, and the growth rates of impervious land and forest land will decrease. (4) Further predictions for 2022–2027 indicate that the density and complexity of the grassland edge will decrease, whereas the fragmentation and complexity of the remaining patches will increase. The degree of fragmentation, complexity, connectivity, and separation of landscape patterns will increase significantly, whereas landscape diversity will remain stable. This study deepens our understanding of how land use and landscape patterns change in the heritage area from a long-term perspective that involves both the past and future. Such research can provide crucial information for tourism management, heritage protection, and spatial planning in the heritage area and, thus, has important management implications for the study area and similar heritage areas in other regions.