Ecosystem Service Changes and Water Management in the Manas River Basin

Arid river basins face critical ecological challenges due to climate change and human activities, exacerbating water scarcity and disrupting ecosystem functions. This study assesses the spatial variability and ecosystem service value (ESV) dynamics of lakes and wetlands in the Manas River Basin, an arid region in northern Xinjiang, from 1990 to 2020. Using the InVEST model and structural equation modeling, we analyzed the climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting midstream wetlands and the downstream lake. The results suggest a potential inverse dynamic relationship between lake expansion and wetland shrinkage, particularly in 2003 and 2017, indicating a competitive hydrological interaction, although our linear regression analysis did not capture a strong relationship. Wetland ESV has notably declined, driven by reduced water availability and increased cultivation, whereas lake ESV has remained stable due to water management practices. Precipitation, evapotranspiration, and temperature negatively impact wetland ESV, while human activities and temperature positively affect lake ESV. These findings highlight the need for tailored water management strategies to address the distinct vulnerabilities of lakes and wetlands, emphasizing balanced water distribution and the mitigation of climate and human impacts to preserve the Manas River Basin’s ecological health.