Milei promises ‘more chainsaw’ in Argentina in 2025

Significance Milei has successfully achieved two campaign promises: price stabilisation and elimination of the fiscal deficit following drastic spending cuts. However, the cost has been high: GDP will contract by 3.8% in 2024 and 52.9% of the population is below the poverty line. Impacts If economic activity rebounds and inflation remains under control, Milei’s party should perform well in October mid-term elections. The economy remains vulnerable to external shock; lower-than-expected recovery would boost unemployment and undermine Milei’s support. A new IMF deal and a more favourable business environment may boost confidence and foreign investments.