Beyond Temperature Peaks: The Growing Persistence and Intensity of Tmin and Tmax Heatwaves in Portugal’s Changing Climate (1980/1981–2022/2023)

This study examines the trends in heatwave characteristics across mainland Portugal from 1980/1981 to 2022/2023, utilising ERA5-Land reanalysis data. To achieve this, the study applies the Heatwave Magnitude Index (HWMI) to identify heatwave days for minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures across 15 grid-points representing Portugal’s diverse geography and climate. Three key annual parameters are analysed: the number of heatwave days (ANDH), the average temperature during heatwaves (AATW), and the intensity of heatwave events (AIHD). Results reveal a consistent increase in heatwave persistence throughout mainland Portugal, with more pronounced trends observed for Tmax compared to Tmin. ANDH Tmin shows upward trends across all grid-points, with increases ranging from 0.8 to 4.2 days per decade. ANDH Tmax exhibits even more significant increases, with 11 out of 15 grid-points showing statistically significant rises, ranging from 2.2 to 4.4 days per decade. Coastal areas, particularly in the south, demonstrate the most substantial increases in heatwave persistence. The intensity of heatwaves, as measured by AIHD, also shows positive trends across all grid-points for both Tmin and Tmax, with southern locations experiencing the most significant increases. The study also discusses decadal trends in annual averages of Tmin and Tmax, as well as extreme measures such as annual minimum (AMIN) and annual maximum (AMAX), daily temperatures spatially represented across mainland Portugal. These analyses reveal widespread warming trends, with more pronounced increases in Tmax compared to Tmin. The AMIN and AMAX trends further corroborate the overall warming pattern from the heatwave analyses, with notable spatial variations observed. The findings indicate a substantial worsening in the occurrence, duration, and intensity of heatwave events. This increased persistence of heatwaves, especially evident from the early 2000s onwards, suggests a potential climate regime shift in mainland Portugal. The results underscore the need for adaptive strategies to address the growing challenges posed by more frequent and intense heatwaves in the region.