MODELS OF ANALYSIS OF THE FEATURES OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION OF THE PENZA REGION

The article examines the features of the demographic situation in the Penza region, provides a generalized assessment of the severity of the demographic crisis in the region, analyzes and predicts the population using statistical modeling methods. Human society is a complex system that is constantly evolving and undergoing significant changes. In recent years, research in the field of demography has become particularly important, as it helps to understand how changes in the size and structure of the population affect the economy, social sphere and politics. The relevance of the topic is due to the fact that demography determines the future of the country and the possible standard of living of future generations. The demographic problem is one of the most urgent for the Penza region. The population is rapidly decreasing against the background of a falling birth rate. In practical terms, the field of demographic research includes a description of the demographic situation, analysis of trends and factors of demographic processes. When assessing regional crisis situations by the level of natural population loss, it was revealed that, starting from 2020 to the present, there is a crisis situation in the demographic sphere of the region. Forecasting the population of the region confirmed that the negative trend will continue in the short term. A regression model has been developed to better understand demographic processes and identify key factors affecting population size. Based on it, a quantitative analysis of the influence of various factors on the overall fertility rate was carried out. As a result of the study, the main causes of the decline in the birth rate were identified and priority areas affecting the stabilization of the demographic situation in the region were identified.