Sensitivity analysis of the electrical power demand of heat pump systems

A significant increase in electrical power demand due to sector coupling is expected in the future, whereby a substantial part is caused by a growing number of heat pumps. This can pose challenges for urban distribution system operators in particular. To provide a more precise quantification of this demand, a typical base scenario is defined, complemented by relevant sensitivities based on a comprehensive survey of manufacturers, expert interviews, and literature review. A high-resolution model is utilized to calculate the resulting electric load profiles, examining various heat pump technologies, design configurations, and control strategies. Based on the findings, recommendations for action from the grid operator's point of view to reduce the increase in power are conclusively given.