Seconder of the vote of thanks to Healy et al. and contribution to the Discussion of ‘Inference for extreme spatial temperature events in a changing climate with application to Ireland’

We investigate the changing nature of the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of extreme temperatures in Ireland from 1942 to 2020.We develop an extreme value model that captures spatial and temporal nonstationarity in extreme daily maximum temperature data.We model the tails of the marginal variables using the generalized Pareto distribution and the spatial dependence of extreme events by a semiparametric Brown-Resnick r-Pareto process, with parameters of each model allowed to change over time.We use weather station observations for modelling extreme events since data from climate models (not conditioned on observational data) can oversmooth these events and have trends determined by the specific climate model configuration.However, climate models do provide valuable information about the detailed physiography over Ireland and the associated climate response.We propose novel methods which exploit the climate model data to overcome issues linked to the sparse and biased sampling of the observations.Our analysis identifies a temporal change in the marginal behaviour of extreme temperature events over the study domain, which is much larger than the change in mean temperature levels over this time window.We illustrate how these characteristics result in increased spatial coverage of the events that exceed critical temperatures.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics)
Published
2024-12-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlae078
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Seconder of the vote of thanks to Healy et al. and contribution to the Discussion of ‘Inference for extreme spatial temperature events in a changing climate with application to Ireland’

Raphaël Huser
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics)
Climate variability and models
article

Seconder of the vote of thanks to Healy et al. and contribution to the Discussion of ‘Inference for extreme spatial temperature events in a changing climate with application to Ireland’

Raphaël Huser
article en

Abstract

We investigate the changing nature of the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of extreme temperatures in Ireland from 1942 to 2020.We develop an extreme value model that captures spatial and temporal nonstationarity in extreme daily maximum temperature data.We model the tails of the marginal variables using the generalized Pareto distribution and the spatial dependence of extreme events by a semiparametric Brown-Resnick r-Pareto process, with parameters of each model allowed to change over time.We use weather station observations for modelling extreme events since data from climate models (not conditioned on observational data) can oversmooth these events and have trends determined by the specific climate model configuration.However, climate models do provide valuable information about the detailed physiography over Ireland and the associated climate response.We propose novel methods which exploit the climate model data to overcome issues linked to the sparse and biased sampling of the observations.Our analysis identifies a temporal change in the marginal behaviour of extreme temperature events over the study domain, which is much larger than the change in mean temperature levels over this time window.We illustrate how these characteristics result in increased spatial coverage of the events that exceed critical temperatures.

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics)Vol. 74(2)
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (SA)
European Commission, Science Foundation Ireland, Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications, Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 80%
Climate variability and models
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