Transaction flows and holding time scaling laws of bitcoin

We study the temporal evolution of the holding-time distribution of bitcoins and find that the average distribution of holding-time is a heavy-tailed power law extending from one day to over at least 200 weeks with an exponent approximately equal to 0.9, indicating very long memory effects. We also report significant sample-to-sample variations of the distribution of holding times, which can be best characterized as multiscaling, with power-law exponents varying between 0.3 and 2.5 depending on bitcoin price regimes. We document significant differences between the distributions of book-to-market and of realized returns, showing that traders obtain far from optimal performance. We also report strong direct qualitative and quantitative evidence of the disposition effect in the Bitcoin Blockchain data. Defining age-dependent transaction flows as the fraction of bitcoins that are traded at a given time and that were born (last traded) at some specific earlier time, we document that the time-averaged transaction flow fraction has a power law dependence as a function of age, with an exponent close to −1.5, a value compatible with priority queuing theory. We document the existence of multifractality on the measure defined as the normalized number of bitcoins exchanged at a given time. • Age (holding time) distribution of bitcoin is significant character in bitcoin transaction. • We find that the average distribution of bitcoin holding time is a heavy-tailed power law with an exponent about 0.9. • The analysis of book-to-market and realized return shows that bitcoin traders obtain far from optimal performance. • The time-averaged transaction flow fraction has a power-law dependence as a function of age, with an exponent about 1.5. • The multifractality exists on the measure defined as the normalized number of bitcoins exchanged at a given time.

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Publication Details

Journal
Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Published
2024-12-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2024.130294
Citations
7
Primary Topic
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
5.45
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article

Transaction flows and holding time scaling laws of bitcoin

Didier Sornette, Yu Zhang
7 citations
Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
5.45
article

Transaction flows and holding time scaling laws of bitcoin

Didier Sornette, Yu Zhang
article en
7 citations

Abstract

We study the temporal evolution of the holding-time distribution of bitcoins and find that the average distribution of holding-time is a heavy-tailed power law extending from one day to over at least 200 weeks with an exponent approximately equal to 0.9, indicating very long memory effects. We also report significant sample-to-sample variations of the distribution of holding times, which can be best characterized as multiscaling, with power-law exponents varying between 0.3 and 2.5 depending on bitcoin price regimes. We document significant differences between the distributions of book-to-market and of realized returns, showing that traders obtain far from optimal performance. We also report strong direct qualitative and quantitative evidence of the disposition effect in the Bitcoin Blockchain data. Defining age-dependent transaction flows as the fraction of bitcoins that are traded at a given time and that were born (last traded) at some specific earlier time, we document that the time-averaged transaction flow fraction has a power law dependence as a function of age, with an exponent close to −1.5, a value compatible with priority queuing theory. We document the existence of multifractality on the measure defined as the normalized number of bitcoins exchanged at a given time. • Age (holding time) distribution of bitcoin is significant character in bitcoin transaction. • We find that the average distribution of bitcoin holding time is a heavy-tailed power law with an exponent about 0.9. • The analysis of book-to-market and realized return shows that bitcoin traders obtain far from optimal performance. • The time-averaged transaction flow fraction has a power-law dependence as a function of age, with an exponent about 1.5. • The multifractality exists on the measure defined as the normalized number of bitcoins exchanged at a given time.

Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its ApplicationsVol. 658
University of Zurich (CH), Southern University of Science and Technology (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
Blockchain Technology Applications and Security
5.45
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Transaction flows and holding time scaling laws of bitcoin — Didier Sornette, Yu Zhang · Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications (2024) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS