Designing research and development strategies for sustainable supply systems of rare metals from the perspective of “imaginary future generations” – A participatory deliberation experiment

In this study, we demonstrate the effectiveness of adopting “Imaginary Future Generations” (IFGs) to design research and development (R&D) strategies for sustainable supply systems of rare metals in view of a sustainable society in 2050. We conducted a deliberation experiment adopting the method and examined the effectiveness based on the results of comparative analyses of discussions conducted from the viewpoint of current generations and that of IFGs, and questionnaire surveys of participants. The discussion results showed that the adoption of IFGs led to a shift in the R&D direction and that to resolve the problem of rare metals in view of a sustainable society, it is essential, in the short term, to establish resource recycling systems, and in the medium to long term, to substitute rare metals with ubiquitous elements, or to develop new mining sites. The questionnaire responses showed that participants who adopted an IFG viewpoint tended to place greater importance on “productivity” and less importance on a “simple process” as indicators of technological development and implementation, showing changes in the perceived importance of associated indicators. The results demonstrate that incorporating the views of IFGs could provide insights into the new directions and requirements of technological innovation for managing rare metal supply and demand from a “futurability” perspective. • R&D strategies for sustainable supply systems of rare metals in 2050 were addressed. • A deliberation experiment using Imaginary Future Generations (IFGs) was conducted. • New and different topics for R&D strategies could be generated by adopting IFGs. • Importance of “Productivity” and “Originality” criteria increased by adopting IFGs. • Results showed that the adoption of IFGs led to a shift in the R&D direction.