A modeling method for cyber-physical attacks on distributed photovoltaic systems based on probabilistic colored Petri nets

As distributed photovoltaic systems (DPS) are widely adopted in power grids, their cyber-physical security has become an increasingly pressing concern. This paper proposes a modeling method based on Probabilistic Colored Logical Petri Nets (PCLPN) to describe and analyze cyber-physical attacks in DPS. First, we introduce the basic concepts and formal definition of PCLPN, detailing its advantages in handling the complexities of randomness, colored tokens, and logical conditions in such systems. We then construct a basic cyber-physical attack model. By introducing attack nodes, we simulate various cyber-physical attack scenarios, such as cyber-attacks and physical disruptions. In the model building process, we use dependency relationship matrices and logical conditions to describe the dynamic changes of attack behaviors, leverage colored tokens to differentiate attack types, and employ a mixed-strategy game to calculate the probabilities of nodes being attacked, thereby quantifying the propagation probabilities of attacks along different paths. Finally, through simulation analysis, we verify the effectiveness of the proposed method in capturing the complex dynamic behaviors of DPS and evaluating system vulnerabilities. This research provides new ideas and tools for the cyber-physical security assessment and protection strategy development of DPS.