Toward spatio-temporal models to support national-scale forest carbon monitoring and reporting

Abstract National forest inventory (NFI) programs provide vital information on forest parameters’ status, trend, and change. Most NFI designs and estimation methods are tailored to estimate status over large areas but are not well suited to estimate trend and change, especially over small spatial areas and/or over short time periods (e.g. annual estimates). Fine-scale space-time indexed estimates are critical to a variety of environmental, ecological, and economic monitoring efforts. In the United States, for example, NFI data are used to estimate forest carbon status, trend, and change to support national, state, and local user group needs. Increasingly, these users seek finer spatial and temporal scale estimates to evaluate existing land use policies and management practices, and inform future activities. Here we propose a spatio-temporal Bayesian small area estimation modeling framework that delivers statistically valid estimates with complete uncertainty quantification for status, trend, and change. The framework accommodates a variety of space and time dependency structures, and we detail model configurations for different settings. The proposed framework is used to quantify forest carbon dynamics at an annual county-level across a 14 year period for the contiguous United States. Also, using an analysis of simulated data, we compare the proposed framework with traditional NFI estimators and offer computationally efficient algorithms, software, and data to reproduce results for benchmarking.