Estimating residential building material demand for Ahmedabad 2050 and its impact on CO₂ emissions

Abstract Urban areas have received increasing attention as key areas to accelerate and upscale climate change. Several Indian cities are witnessing a huge demand for residential buildings, and consequently, for energy-intensive building materials. Using the case study of Ahmedabad city in western India, the study used a bottom-up methodology to develop a methodological framework for estimating the material demand for the residential sector by 2050. The objective of the study was to estimate future housing stock for Ahmedabad and its impact on material demand and CO2 emissions this study adopted a mixed-method approach. The estimated material demand (EMD) for 2050 was derived from the calculated total constructed floor area (CFA) and quantity of material consumption per square meter. The total CFA is calculated using percentages of different housing types, unit sizes, and building height. Using trend analyses data from the last 50 years (1965–2015) and forecasts for the different building typologies, future floor space was estimated. Quantitative research was further strengthened by conducting semi-structured interviews with 16 experts. The results show a residential building typologies over time, with a decline in independent houses and an increase in multistoried apartments by 2050. With the continuation of current trends, 3.1 million new housing units will need to be constructed by 2050. Without policy intervention, 45.6 Mt of cement, 13.3 Mt of steel, and 150 Mt of bricks would be required resulting in 178.1 MtCO 2 emissions. The EMD establishes the need to adopt alternative sustainable pathways, including reducing the demand for floor space, and adopting resource efficiency and circular economic principles for building materials. The paper concludes with recommendations for Ahmedabad, which can be replicated in other Indian cities. Future studies could explore alternative scenarios of urban development and how approaches to sufficiency or efficiency can alter material consumption.