Modeling the Impact of Innovation on Business

The article is devoted to analysis of the impact of innovations on business in the context of digitalization and automation of business processes. The study purpose is to model the impact of innovation development (estimated as number of patent applications in the field of digital technologies) on business development (as GNI). To achieve the goal, the following tasks are performed: forming a sample of countries and database according to selected indicators, data normalization, regression analysis, spline modelling, checking significance of constructed models, comparing and choosing the most optimal one. The formed sample is based on data from the World Bank and European Patent Office for 92 world countries regarding the values of GNI and number of patent applications in the field of digital technologies. Within the framework of regression analysis, pairwise regression and polynomial regression models are built using the Statgraphics 19 software. MAR Spline modelling is carried out using Salford Predictive Modeler 8.0 software. To check statistical significance, criteria of Durbin-Watson, Student, Fisher, etc. are used. The study results demonstrate the importance of innovation activity for business development and economic growth, which is confirmed by simulated and estimated positive complex relationship. The high value of the coefficient of determination in linear regression model demonstrates a strong dependence and significant impact of patent applications on GNI. The fifth-order polynomial regression more adequately describes complex relationships between variables. The quality of the forecast calculated using spline model is confirmed by the value of mean absolute error, which is close to zero. The forecast values are increased to the 5th degree. Accordingly, increasing the opportunities for filing and obtaining patents will contribute to greater GNI growth. The obtained results can be useful for government and business structures, public organizations, educational and scientific institutions, and are the basis for further research.