Greenhouse Gas Reductions Driven by Vehicle Choice and Use Patterns

We assess the cradle-to-grave greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of current (2025) light-duty vehicles (LDV) across powertrains, vehicle classes, and locations. A comprehensive lifecycle model was developed creating driver archetypes (commuters, long-distance travelers, contractors), simulating different use patterns (drive cycles, utility factors, cargo loads) to characterize GHG reduction potentials of consumer purchasing and operational choices. Electricity grid projections across 134 balancing areas and county level temperature data were used to assess regional variations. Driven by grid decarbonization and improved electric vehicle efficiency, we are the first to report vehicle electrification reduces GHG emissions in every county across the contiguous United States. On average, a 300-mile range battery electric vehicle (BEV) has 31-36% lower emissions than a 50-mile range plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), 63-65% lower emissions than a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), and 71-73% lower emissions than an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV). Downsizing also reduces emissions, with a compact ICEV having 34% lower emissions than an ICEV pickup. National average LDV lifecycle emissions range from 81-486 g CO2e/mile, offering up to 83% emissions reduction potential through electrification and downsizing. Regional analysis shows switching from an ICEV to a BEV reduces emissions by 194-356 g CO2e/mile, with benefits varying due to grid intensity and temperature adjustments. In low-carbon grid areas like Valley County, MT, BEV200 pickup and compact sedan emissions are 90% and 92% lower than ICEV pickups. Even in Apache County, AZ, with the most carbon-intensive grid, BEV200 pickup and compact sedan emissions are 40% and 61% lower than ICEV pickups. We also present the first evaluation of LDV emissions while hauling cargo, showing that carrying 2500lbs. in a pickup increases BEV emissions by only 14% (121 to 139 g CO2e/mile) compared to 22% (486 to 591 g CO2e/mile) for an ICEV. To achieve decarbonization in the transportation sector, policymakers should support growth of PHEV and BEV through policy that increase access to charging infrastructure and market incentives, automakers should continue expanding EV production, and consumers can maximize emissions reductions by prioritizing BEVs where feasible and carefully considering their typical use case.