Cuba’s economic outlook for 2025 is bleak

Significance Blackouts are becoming increasingly problematic, with fuel supplies strained and decades of insufficient investment having left ageing infrastructure prone to failure. The situation compounds a broader state of crisis in Cuba, where food and sugar production is plummeting, tourism is down and GDP has declined for a second year running. Impacts Cuba is unlikely to resolve its debt arrears with Western partners any time soon. Dependence on aid and investment from partners such as Russia will increase. Inflationary pressures have decreased but will continue to limit the state’s capacity to revive the economy through additional spending. The economic situation will likely lead to isolated outbursts of anger but no organised protest movement.