Mere Puffery or Convincing Claims? Rebel News and Civilian Perceptions of the Balance of Power

Abstract How does rebel news affect the way civilians perceive the balance of power during conflict? While media campaigns are a common tactic during conflict for both insurgents and governments, there is very little empirical research that explores their effect on civilians. I argue that these campaigns play an important role in the construction of a rebel group’s reputation during conflict and the perception of their organization among non-combatants. This is because civilians suffer from an information disadvantage and struggle to accurately gauge the relative strength of actors in the conflict. I exploit the plausibly random introduction of the Taliban’s official radio station in Kabul during May 2018 to test the effect of rebel news on civilian attitudes. NATO’s Afghanistan Nationwide Quarterly Assessment Research survey happened to field a wave directly before and after this event. I use difference-in-differences to estimate the effect of exposure to the Taliban’s news and demonstrate that it increased perceptions of the group’s strength. This finding has important implications for the study of civilian attitude formation and support during conflict.