Analysis of Factors Influencing Driver Lane-Changing Intentions Based on a Naturalistic Trajectory Data Set on Highways

Accurately analyzing and predicting driver lane-changing intentions is of paramount importance, as it significantly enhances the safety of self-driving vehicles in their decision-making processes, holding great promise for the future of intelligent transportation systems. This study extracts fundamental lane-changing characteristic parameters from the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) trajectory data set and employs Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to construct a model that elucidates the factors influencing drivers’ lane-changing intentions. Furthermore, it provides insight into how lane-changing intentions are influenced by lane-changing behavior and explores the intricate connection between intention and associated risks. The results emphasize the substantial negative impact of the longitudinal speed difference between the self-vehicle and the preceding vehicle on lane-changing intentions. Additionally, the consideration of lane-changing risk plays a pivotal role in drivers’ decisions to engage in lane-changing behavior. These findings have significant implications for a deeper comprehension of lane-changing intentions, guiding lane-changing decisions, and enhancing overall traffic safety.