Prediction and Policy Research of Pathways to Carbon Emissions Peak in Transportation Sector: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province

In this paper, taking Zhejiang Province as the research object, we predict the trends of transportation carbon emissions under a baseline scenario considering both operating and non-operating transportation systematically. Three schemes of carbon emissions peaking are proposed on this basis, representing the mild, moderate, and radical plans, respectively. The recommended one is then determined through a quantitative comparison by investigating the pathways of carbon emissions trends for each. The results reveal that Zhejiang Province cannot achieve the carbon peak in transportation sector ahead of schedule if the existing policy measures are maintained. The moderate scheme, however, can reach the goal on time by adjusting the parameter settings feasibly in relevant policy measures, among which the new energy of vehicles and the optimization of transportation structure are pointed out as the main breakthroughs in the short and medium term. Improvements in fuel energy efficiency and transportation organizations need to seek breakthroughs in medium- to long-term plans.