Analysis of Emissions Reduction Effects of Alternative Strategies for Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles under Different Ban Times

To verify the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction effect of battery electric vehicles (BEV) compared with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV), and explore the ban time of ICEV, we construct a life cycle GHG estimation model for BEV and ICEV by using the full life cycle theory. The BEV market penetration parameter is introduced to analyze the emissions reduction effect of ICEV substitution strategies by setting up different banning scenarios under two backgrounds of low- and high-speed development of future vehicle ownership. The results show that GHG emissions reductions by 2050 are 31.79% and 32.65% under the low- and high-speeddevelopment modes, respectively, if ICEV are banned in 2030; 27.53% and 28.31%, respectively, if they are banned in 2035; and 24.51% and 25.21%, respectively, if they are banned in 2040. Further analyzing the optimal year interval for a ban on ICEV, it was concluded that a ban on ICEV should be introduced no later than 2032. In addition, except for 2027 and 2028, the difference between the peak years of road traffic in the neighboring years is no more than one year for both high- and low-speed development modes.