Empirical prediction intervals applied to short term mortality forecasts and excess deaths
Our results highlight the importance of well-calibrated prediction intervals that account for the naturally occurring seasonal uncertainty in mortality forecasting. Empirical prediction intervals provide a better performing solution for estimating forecast uncertainty in the analyses of excess deaths compared to conventional parametric intervals.
Authors
- Jonas Schöley (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3340-8518)
- Ricarda Duerst
Institutions
- University of Helsinki (FI)
- Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (DE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Population Health Metrics
- Published
- 2024-12-11
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-024-00355-9
- Primary Topic
- Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- International Max Planck Research School for Environmental, Cellular and Molecular Microbiology
- International Max Planck Research School for Advanced Methods in Process and Systems Engineering
- Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung