PUBLIC ASSOCIATIONS AS AN INSTITUTION OF CIVIL SOCIETY (REGIONAL ASPECT)

discrete wavelet transform (ReverseBiorthogonalSplineWavelet[8,8] family), the accuracy of which is higher than 99% ("RSquared"0.999793).The scientific novelty of the proposed method of improving the accuracy of forecasting monthly budget revenues of the RF subjects lies in the fact that the necessity of preliminary decomposition of the time series and subsequent construction of forecasts for the obtained parts has been proved, resulting in high forecast accuracy.The obtained result differs significantly from the results of using traditional econometric methods (ARIMA/SARIMA), which are characterised by much lower accuracy (50-80%) and decreasing accuracy of forecasts with increasing forecast horizon.This article is new, as it forms a new approach to solving the problem of improving the accuracy of forecasts of budget revenues at all levels, which allows for more effective budget and investment policy.

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Publication Details

Published
2024-12-11
DOI
https://doi.org/10.34660/inf.2023.81.25.109
Primary Topic
Economic and Business Development Strategies
Type
article
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article

PUBLIC ASSOCIATIONS AS AN INSTITUTION OF CIVIL SOCIETY (REGIONAL ASPECT)

P.G. Mezhidova
Economic and Business Development Strategies
article

PUBLIC ASSOCIATIONS AS AN INSTITUTION OF CIVIL SOCIETY (REGIONAL ASPECT)

P.G. Mezhidova
article en

Abstract

discrete wavelet transform (ReverseBiorthogonalSplineWavelet[8,8] family), the accuracy of which is higher than 99% ("RSquared"0.999793).The scientific novelty of the proposed method of improving the accuracy of forecasting monthly budget revenues of the RF subjects lies in the fact that the necessity of preliminary decomposition of the time series and subsequent construction of forecasts for the obtained parts has been proved, resulting in high forecast accuracy.The obtained result differs significantly from the results of using traditional econometric methods (ARIMA/SARIMA), which are characterised by much lower accuracy (50-80%) and decreasing accuracy of forecasts with increasing forecast horizon.This article is new, as it forms a new approach to solving the problem of improving the accuracy of forecasts of budget revenues at all levels, which allows for more effective budget and investment policy.

Complex Scientific Research Institute. H.I. Ibrahimov (RU)
Openalex Percentile: Top 72%
Economic and Business Development Strategies
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